As of the latest news, it looks like Du30 might just run as president via the route of substitution.
So, how does a Du30 scenario affect the current crop of presidentiables? In the previous surveys, Du30 has a huge following in Mindanao, as expected. In fact, there were two surveys done one after another which showed the increase of Du30’s stock primarily because of the Mindanao vote. In the same vein, it was then that Binay slid down due to his shedding of his Mindanao support which went to Du30. That was when Poe surpassed Binay (or at least statistically tied Binay).
Du30 also has a Visayan following and a little in Luzon. So this only means that should a Du30 candidacy (if and when) become a fruition, the most affected will be Binay (due to the Mindanao exodus) and Roxas (due to the Visayan division). Poe will be the least affected since most of her support comes from Luzon and some in the Visayas. Her Mindanao support stems from the FPJ factor which are rather hard core and will only be least affected by a Du30 candidacy.
Let it be known that what I am stating are all recalled from memory. I might have missed some statistical points here and there. But at best, mine can be considered a good guesstimate.
BBM was right in saying that with the entry of Du30 (again, if and when), all the latest survey results will have become irrelevant.
But how will Du30 figure in the long run will depend on how he evolves from being a one-dimensional candidate to a multi-faceted politician who is able to address other issues as job generation, fiscal management, foreign relations etc. (I wrote about this in one of my previous posts.)
But the bigger question is, will he finally Du it?